I know of no better text to understand kurtosis, the contribution of the very small to the very large, and the dynamics of rare events. The value of this book lies way beyond the film industry. In addition it is is written with great clarity and does not use anything beyond intuitive mathematics. Provocative and eye opening for its depth and intelligent analysis. Not even popular stars or large first-week audiences are valid predictors of a film's future success. The volume demonstrates what sophisticated analysis can and cannot reveal about an industry in which "no one knows anything".
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Can a star and a big opening change a movie's risks and return? Do studio executives really earn their huge paychecks? These and many other questions are answered in Hollywood Economics. The book uses powerful analytical models to uncover the wild uncertainty that shapes the industry. The centerpiece of the analysis is the unpredictable and often chaotic dynamic behaviour of motion picture audiences. This unique and important book will be of interest to students and researchers involved in the economics of movies, industrial economics and business studies.
The book will also be a real eye-opener for film writers, movie executives, finance and risk management professionals as well as more general movie fans.
Arthur De Vany is Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of California, Irvine and President of Arts Analytica, a consulting company specializing in energy, motion pictures and risk-return analysis. Table of Contents Part I: Box-office champions, chaotic dynamics and herding. Quality evaluations and the breakdown of statistical herding in the dynamics of box-office revenue.
Does Hollywood make too many R-rated movies? Was the antitrust action that broke up the movie studios good for the movies? Read an excerpt of this book! Add to Wishlist. Sign in to Purchase Instantly. Temporarily Out of Stock Online Please check back later for updated availability. Overview Just how risky is the movie industry? Table of Contents Part I: Box-office champions, chaotic dynamics and herding 1.
The market for motion pictures: Rank, revenue and survival 2. Bose-Einstein dynamics and adaptive contracting in the motion picture industry 3. Quality evaluations and the breakdown of statistical herding in the dynamics of box-office revenue Part II: "Wild" uncertainty, tough decisions and false beliefs 4.
Uncertainty in the movie industry: Can star power reduce the terror of the box office? Motion picture antitrust: The Paramount cases revisited 8. Stochastic market structure: Concentration measures and motion picture antitrust Part IV: A business of extremes Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis and the curse of the superstar Contracting with stars when "nobody knows anything" How extreme uncertainty shapes the movie business Epilogue: Can you manage a business when "nobody knows anything"?
Arthur De Vany
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Table of Contents for: Hollywood economics : how extreme uncert
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Hollywood Economics: How Extreme Uncertainty Shapes the Film Industry